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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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