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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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