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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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