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Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to break a nine year record with iron ore imports increasing this year to above one billion tonnes. The outlook on the market price of iron ore is also strong, since apart from the effect of the underlying fundamentals and the current momentum driven by China, as a commodity it is now trading at the highest level since late 2011 up nearly 80% in 2020.
China’s iron ore imports, which are primarily from Australia and Brazil, are playing a significant role in seaborne trade dynamics and the Capesize freight market in particular. Despite the recent tensions between Australia and China and the results of that on coal trade in particular, we expect an intensive demand for both materials during the remainder of the year. Hopefully during the next year as well. In the first and second quarter of the new year, we are all also hoping at the same time for effective vaccines to allow global commerce to restart and return to a certain “new normal, hopefully boosting activity on an even more broader scope across all dry bulk segments.
On the coal trade front, Australia and Indonesia account for 78% of total Chinese imports. Both countries offer short sailing distances to China and the recent escalation of political tensions between China and Australia led to an unofficial ban on Australian coal entering China, which put in force in early November. This has essentially meant that all vessels loaded with Australian coal approaching Chinese ports are now anchored off Chinese ports, some stranded there even for months. Furthermore, it was reported that China recently inked a US$1.5 billion worth of thermal coal deal with Indonesia, which represents a significant volume of Indonesian coal expected to reach China within 2021.
Looking at iron ore demand, the main driver for the Capesize freight market, China's demand is expected to remain high over the next 12 months; although Chinese steelmakers may seek to reduce production slightly should the iron ore prices remain at such a high level that renders many of them unprofitable. Iron ore demand in many other countries of the world is expected to stay below its 2019 level, with a range of steelmakers in Europe and South Asia remaining closed or in a slowdown and not expected to return to production until iron ore prices drop.
China will release its five-year plan for the period 2021-2025 in March next year. The plan is expected to include a renewed focus on infrastructure rollouts and more rapid urbanisation, particularly in central and western China, which will in turn impact steel demand. By that time, in March, we will have a more positive outlook on the Covid-19 situation and more clear insight on the effect of the vaccine on the greater population and its economies. Interesting times ahead of us, let’s see how this will affect seaborne shipping in a new year where we are all expecting a much better landscape.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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