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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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