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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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