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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
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Showing 811 to 815 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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