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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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