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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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