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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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