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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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