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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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