We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
 Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by China’s National Development and Reform Commission to formally and indefinitely block Australian coal imports is a key threat to Australia’s political and economic wellbeing. Australia can never expect to win a trade war with its biggest export partner, and it is sheer political and economic suicide to try to do so. But is it devastating for the Australian coal export industry? Not at all.
Far more strategically threatening in the long term for Australia and our coal industry is the pledge by China’s president Xi Jinping to reach net zero emissions by 2060, which was rapidly followed by net zero emissions by 2050 pledges from Japan’s prime minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in. This series of sudden and powerful pledges of increased climate ambition by world leaders is likely to be terminal for our coal exports if we look out a couple of decades.
Australia is caught in the geopolitical quandary of having China as our key trade partner and the United States as our key military ally. When US president Donald Trump started a trade war with China, it was never going to turn out well for Australia. And incoming president Joe Biden is unlikely to change tack too materially where China and trade and technology are concerned (whereas on climate, Biden’s arrival changes everything). But we in Australia are like a mouse caught in the middle of two sparring elephants.
In business, the best rule is that the customer is always right (even if they are not). Our coal exporters will however survive this near-term political fight, probably far better than our wine or lobster export industries, by comparison.
There are no coal ships destined for China being loaded in Australia now. For most industries, that would be devastating. For coal, not so much. In fact, a look at the share prices of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Corporation would suggest quite the opposite. Since the September 2020 trough, and acknowledging the sharp price falls on Tuesday, Whitehaven shares have rallied 70% and New Hope are up almost 20%.
Why? Coal is coal, at least to a finance analyst like me, if not an engineer. Australia sells the vast majority of its coal to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. And if China buys more Russian, South African and Indonesian coal to replace Australian coal, then we can, by and large, simply swap customers, maybe with a month’s disruption. Total demand doesn’t change, nor does supply – at least not in the near term. Sure, there are some boiler and blending constraints, but notwithstanding coal luddite claims that Australia’s coal is slightly less carbon polluting than someone else’s seaborne coal, the minute difference is irrelevant – all coal is almost 100% more carbon intensive than wind, solar, hydro, nuclear or energy efficiency. Or green ammonia, as Japan’s JERA is now thinking.
The coal industry is actually benefiting from a near-term relief rally. In September Australian coal exporters were losing money with every tonne of coal they exported. In December, the picture is very different. China’s key Shanxi province has just shut down coal production near term due to a spate of deadly accidents, just as winter heating demand has kicked in. Meanwhile the Chinese industrial economy is powering along. So the Chinese domestic thermal coal price has jumped 35% to 740/t yuan in the last three months. Seaborne thermal coal prices have rallied from a low of US$46/t to over US$70/t in the same timeframe. Even as total volume of Australian coal exports have dropped in the December quarter, the value has surged, and more importantly, the profitability much more so (notwithstanding the 10% rally in the Aus$/US$, lifted by the unprecedented rally in iron ore prices). Hence the Whitehaven Coal and New Hope increase in share price.
The coal export sector outlook seems profitable again – in the near term. But the 25% collapse in the Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal share price since its initial public offering last week is a clearer perspective of the longterm structural headwinds Australia’s coal industry is facing. Far better for our Hunter Valley, La Trobe Valley and Bowen Basin communities that we as a nation acknowledge the science of climate change, prepare a national roadmap, ideally with a destination and time of arrival clearly acknowledged.
The investment, employment and export opportunities for Australia are enormous, and exciting. To steal a very good line from Ross Garnaut and Mike Cannon-Brookes – better we focus on building Australia as a renewable energy superpower.
This commentary first appeared in The Guardian.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
|
|
|
Showing 621 to 625 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
|
| |
| |
|
