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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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