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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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Showing 806 to 810 news of total 6871 |
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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