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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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Showing 816 to 820 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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