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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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