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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
 Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously expected this year. We expect the aggregate EBITDA of the shipping companies we rate globally to grow by 3%-5% in 2021, driven by a recovery in the dry bulk segment from pandemic lows and the continuance of good market fundamentals for container shipping. However, this is tempered by a likely decline in EBITDA in the tanker segment next year because of tough comparisons with record charter rates in the first half of 2020. The industry’s overall supply-demand balance is set to improve in 2021, which is the other main reason for the outlook change. However, risks remain. A tenuous global economic recovery has taken hold but ongoing pandemic fears and a resurgence in coronavirus infections in some major economies could hinder a recovery in demand for shipping services in 2021. Our outlook for the global shipping industry had been negative since March 2020.
Limited supply of new vessels and capacity management should act as a cushion to adverse market conditions.
Order books for all three shipping segments remain at record low levels in relation to their total fleets. As Exhibit 2 shows, even absent a real recovery or demand contracting moderately, the different segments would see limited growth in new capacity. In the container shipping segment, carriers could resume cancellations of sailings to reduce capacity to match demand. However, the tanker and dry bulk markets will be more sensitive to changes in demand during 2021 because they are much more fragmented than the global container market where capacity is partly organised through alliances.
Our view for the container shipping segment has changed to stable from negative. Following very disciplined capacity management by carriers, low bunker prices and increasing freight rates as demand recovered in the second half of 2020, the container shipping industry will record one of its strongest years since 2010. With supply and demand likely to be in balance given the very limited order book for new vessels, we expect a stable operating environment in 2021. Even if the global economic recovery takes longer to materialise, given the rising infections in Europe and the US, carriers’ capacity management should continue to keep freight rates broadly stable.
Our view for the dry bulk segment has changed to stable from negative. This is anchored in our expectations that the trough for dry bulk shipping companies likely happened during the second quarter of 2020 and that the market environment should gradually improve over the next 12-18 months. The recovery in key dry-bulk commodities has been more or less driven by China, where import volumes of iron ore were 11% higher in the year to date to August than in the same period in 2019. The supplydemand balance is also set to improve. Assuming the global economy recovers in 2021, we foresee dry bulk demand growing by 3%-5% versus supply growth ranging from 0.5% to 2%, depending on the level of scrapping activity and order delays/cancellations. Still, downside risks are certainly evident, including protracted lockdowns that would curb demand.
Our view for the tanker segment has changed to negative from stable. Tanker operators had a very strong first half of the year as the mix of a sudden collapse in oil prices and maintained production resulted in high demand for floating storage, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). As a result, charter rates reached record highs in the March to May period this year, but have weakened since with recent VLCC rates around half of the peak levels earlier this year. A substantial part of the fleet remains in floating storage or idle, a temporary effect that is likely to reverse, although a reversal may also result in higher scrapping. While oil demand continues to recover, fleet order books remain manageable and charter rates may seasonally rise in the fourth quarter of 2020, we believe that EBITDA in this shipping segment will contract in 2021 as the as the exceptional Q2 environment is unlikely to be repeated.
What could change the outlook. We would consider revising the outlook to positive if both the oversupply of vessels declines materially and comparable year-over-year EBITDA growth appears likely to exceed 10%. We would consider changing the outlook to negative if we see signs that shipping supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2% or that comparable EBITDA will decline by more than 5% year over year
Since outlooks represent our forward-looking view on business conditions that factor into our ratings, a negative (positive) outlook suggests that negative (positive) rating actions are more likely on average. However, the industry outlook does not represent a sum of upgrades, downgrades or ratings under review, or an average of the rating outlooks of issuers in the industry, but rather our assessment of the main direction of business fundamentals within the overall industry.
Source: Moody’s
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Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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