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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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