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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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