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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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