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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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