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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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