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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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