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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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