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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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