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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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