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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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