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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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Showing 81 to 85 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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