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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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