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Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
 Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bulk market to take shape in the final few months of 2020.
Amidst a tail risk regime, it would be rather risky to rest in "known" assumptions and past experiences, trying to choose the best "strategy", even in the case of a short-term outlook. This year has its unique characteristics, being in the midst of a transition over to a different and new era, in terms of how we conduct business, or even how we value risk.
Still though, it is too early to say if these trends of late are really here to stay. For the time being and with some sort of certainty, we can say that this shock event will leave its mark. Based on this, can we expect global markets to react differently compared to what we have seen up to now in the event of any further escalations being noted to the current Covid-19 pandemic?
In March, the hit was immediate and strong, despite the false (at the time) impression, that it was a shock of short-term magnitude. Given that it is a macroeconomic problem, how can global markets respond to "closed" economies, disruptions and strict restrictions. We have known unknowns, but also, unknown unknowns.
The freight market was one of those markets hardest hit by the onset of the pandemic. There was a clumsy negative dive in realized returns, that many instantly compared it to the market of 2016. However, year-to-date average earnings have outperformed those of 2016. This, on the other hand, doesn't overturn the tremendous step back being noted, both in terms of sentiment and actual earnings.
This situation rather supports the argument that chasing periodical opportunities and minimizing risks, as key aspects for a successful business model under the current market regime. A strong example is the Capesize market, that may well finish the 3rd quarter above the US$ 20,000/day mark (a relatively strong figure for the time period) that suggests that ample fundamentals still exist to support such periodical "rebounds".
Forward sentiment, measured by current levels in the paper market, is also in favor of a relatively "good" freight market for the remaining part of the year. Closing numbers for contracts with expiration dates within this year have noticed a fair boost for most of the size segments during the past month. However, a sharp correction is being noted for contracts involving the 1st quarter of 2021. Whether this view is based solely on typical seasonality pressures, or a hypothetical peak of another wave of market disruptions as part of the pandemic, is still unknown. If we were to experience a strong escalation in the pandemic, it is unlikely that this will only affect the start of the new year and have no significant negative effect on rates for the final part of this year.
In other words, the timing of relevant positions in the market can prove essential and challenging, given the market's vulnerability, volatility and fragile status. As a closing though, all this could have a deeper impact on the Sale and Purchase. With a fair bit of bullish sentiment now possibly on the crisp of spilling over into the SnP market, we could potentially see a fairly "robust" picture portrayed both in terms of activity and asset prices during the final months of 2020. For the time being, over-all year-to-date activity seems to be lagging behind compared with what was seen during the last couple of years. Given the good momentum noted since the start of the summer, we could see a vivid sales market add optimism and subdue any excessive dissonance from other volatile sub-markets.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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Showing 56 to 60 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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