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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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