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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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