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Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country’s thermal coal imports were broadly stable year-on-year in the four months to April. Japan’s imports are forecast to decline by around 2 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in 2020. Low LNG prices and subdued energy demand due to COVID-19 should weigh on thermal coal imports. However, imports should also receive support from the shutdown of a number of nuclear power plants (which compete with thermal coal in electricity generation) that need to finish upgrades to comply with counter terrorism measures said Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia in its Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report in early July 2020.
Beyond 2020, according to report, there are competing trends at work. Japan has new coal-fired capacity under construction. However, energy demand in Japan is on a downward trend, and Japan is planning to shift its power generation mix towards nuclear and renewable energy, and away from gas and coal. The 2011 Fukushima disaster resulted in the closure of Japan’s nuclear fleet. At the time of writing, only nine of Japan’s 42 nuclear reactors had gained approval to restart. More reactors are likely to come back online by 2022, with 18 reactors having submitted applications to Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority to restart. The pace of nuclear restarts is the main uncertainty affecting the outlook for Japan’s thermal coal imports. Nuclear energy in Japan continues to face public opposition and legal challenges. There remain significant risks of delays and slippages in nuclear restarts.
South Korea’s imports to decline as energy transition accelerates
The report noted that, South Korea is the world’s fourth largest thermal coal importer, purchasing an estimated 99 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. South Korea’s thermal coal imports fell steeply year-on-year in the four months to April 2020, down around 20 per cent, as COVID-19 affected power demand and the country scaled up its temporary closure of coal-fired power stations to curb air pollution. Over the past few years, the South Korean government has introduced regulations that require coal-fired power stations in South Korea to shut down or operate at reduced capacity during certain periods of the year, particularly over winter, or when air pollution reaches certain thresholds. South Korea’s government has also introduced new tax arrangements aimed at encouraging the use of gas over coal. South Korea’s thermal coal imports are forecast to fall to 93 million tonnes in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, South Korea’s imports are forecast to remain broadly stable at around 93 million tonnes, with increasing power demand offset by the impact of policies to reduce coal use. South Korea’s long-term plan is to shift its energy mix towards renewables and gas, and away from nuclear and coal. Under South Korea’s energy plan, no new coal-fired power or nuclear capacity will be added, aside from that already under construction.
Under South Korea’s draft 2020-2034 energy plan, the current target of 36 per cent for coal’s share of power generation in 2034 would be cut to 15 per cent. Taiwan’s imports to decline under national energy plan Taiwan’s thermal coal imports were broadly steady in 2019, at an estimated 58 million tonnes.
Power demand in Taiwan was resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020, thermal coal imports have declined year-on-year due to the government’s energy transition policies. Thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2020, falling to 55 million tonnes. In 2021 and 2022, Taiwan’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline slightly further. Taiwan is aiming to shift its power generation mix towards gas and renewables, and away from nuclear and coal. Under Taiwan’s current energy plan, coal’s share of power generation would fall from 46 per cent at present to 27 per cent in 2025. While government policy is expected to reduce Taiwan’s thermal coal imports,
Taiwan does face challenges in achieving a rapid energy transition. Taiwan will need to quickly bring on LNG regasification capacity in order to ramp up LNG imports, and project slippage remains a risk. Taiwan’s energy plan also envisages a 10-fold expansion in solar photovoltaic capacity, but Taiwan is densely populated, and access to land to support the ramp up remains a major challenge. To date, Taiwan’s expansion of offshore wind generation has gone relatively smoothly, with greater government control over offshore development rights.
According to Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia, Southeast and South Asia to be a key source of import growth In 2019, Southeast and South Asia (excluding India) imported an estimated 153 million tonnes of thermal coal. The largest importers of thermal coal in Southeast Asia were Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. In South Asia, Pakistan was the largest thermal coal buyer, followed by Bangladesh. While countries in Southeast and South Asia are relatively small importers individually, collectively, the region is expected to play a substantial role in thermal coal markets going forward.
Resources and Energy Quarterly June 2020 report of Office of the Chief Economist’ of Australia further noted that, the Vietnam’s thermal coal imports appear to have grown strongly in the first five months of 2020, with total coal imports reaching record high levels in April and May, as power demand climbed. The impacts of COVID-19 in early 2020 were more pronounced in a number of other nations in South and South East Asia. Power generators in the Philippines are reportedly expecting to cut coal imports this year, as measures aimed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic reduce power demand. In 2020, Southeast and South Asia’s imports are forecast to decline to 144 million tonnes. After 2020, the thermal coal imports of Southeast and South Asia are expected to increase, reaching 178 million tonnes in 2022.
Economic and population growth is driving the demand for electricity, and coal-fired power generation is expected to play a key role in meeting growing usage. While project cancellations appear to have been rising in recent years, the completion of coal-fired power stations currently under construction is expected to drive the region’s demand for thermal coal imports higher over the next few years. Vietnam is expected to be a key driver of import demand growth. Under Vietnam’s Power Development Plan, coal-fired power will account for 49 per cent of the nation’s electricity generation capacity by 2025. However, there are downside risks to the outlook, with the National Steering Committee for Power Development reportedly recommending that the government scale back the target for coal-fired power to 37 per cent in 2025.
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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