We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
|
|
|
Showing 931 to 935 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
