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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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