We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
|
|
|
Showing 941 to 945 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
