We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
Friday, 04 September 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN MIN 5,700 NCV COAL FOR NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 260,000 MT Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal November, 2020 loading. Acc ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
BRINGING SERVICES OF FTCCI CLOSER TO THE EXPORTERS AT GMR AIR CARGO COMPLEX AT SHAMSHABAD
Press Release: “FTCCI Trade Facilitation Services at your doorstep now” says J.S. Chandrashekar, IRS., Principal Commissioner of Custom ...
Thursday, 03 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7% IN APR-AUG; OFF TAKE DIPS 13.4% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
In the month of August coal off take also increased 9.3% y-o-y to 44.34 MT as compared with 40.57 MT in the same period last year.
C ...
|
|
|
Showing 796 to 800 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
