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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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