We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 02 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The imminent global shift towards eco-friendliness has caused divide among the shipping community because there is no outlined, clear-cut way via w ...
Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
|
|
|
Showing 801 to 805 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
