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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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