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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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