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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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