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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
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Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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