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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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