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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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