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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
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Showing 966 to 970 news of total 6871 |
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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