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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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