We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
|
|
|
Showing 956 to 960 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
