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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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Showing 951 to 955 news of total 6871 |
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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