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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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