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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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