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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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