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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
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Showing 926 to 930 news of total 6871 |
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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