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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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