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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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