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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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