We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
|
|
|
Showing 896 to 900 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
|
| |
| |
|
