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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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